Generics & Specialty Pharma M&A Signal Engine

🔴 HIGH Alerts

Z-score ≥ 2.0

🟡 Elevated

Z-score 1.5–2.0

Companies Analyzed

Earnings transcripts

⚠️ FDA Flags

Compliance signals

🎯 Top M&A Prob

62%

HRMY

Signal Distribution

M&A Probability Distribution

Alert Level Breakdown

Deal Type Mix

Acquirer vs Target Z-Score (bubble size = M&A probability)

All Companies — Enhanced M&A Signal Summary

Ticker	Signal	Alert	M&A Prob %	Deal Type	Acq. Score	Tgt. Score	CEO	Activist	Dry Powder	Top Phrases
HRMY Harmony Biosciences	TARGET	🔴 HIGH	62%	Acquisition Target	0	18	⚪	⚠️	$0.8B	capa
CORT Corcept Therapeutics	TARGET	🔴 HIGH	60%	Acquisition Target	0	66	⚪		$0.1B	capa
PRGO Perrigo	TARGET	🔴 HIGH	58%	Merger of Equals Candidate	0	196	⚪		$0.5B	divestituregoodwill impairmentimpairment chargecapa
LNTH Lantheus Holdings	BOTH	🔴 HIGH	55%	Merger of Equals Candidate	75	118	⚪		$0.4B	divestitureprice erosiontuck-incommercial infrastructure
PCRX Pacira BioSciences	ACQUIRER	🔴 HIGH	53%	Strategic Acquirer	46	4	🟡		$0.2B	paragraph ivcommercial infrastructurecapital deploymentrestructuring
VTRS Viatris	MONITOR	⚪ NORMAL	53%	Strategic Acquirer	10	15	🟡	⚠️	$1.4B	import alertcapacapital deploymentbalance sheet capacity
SUPN Supernus Pharmaceuticals	MONITOR	⚪ NORMAL	49%	Strategic Monitor	0	0	⚪		$128.4B
IRWD Ironwood Pharmaceuticals	MONITOR	⚪ NORMAL	44%	Strategic Monitor	0	57	⚪	⚠️	$0.2B	strategic alternativesprice erosion
ANIP ANI Pharmaceuticals	MONITOR	⚪ NORMAL	39%	Strategic Monitor	0	6	⚪		$0.3B	capa
AKBA Akebia Therapeutics	MONITOR	⚪ NORMAL	39%	Strategic Monitor	0	6	⚪		$0.2B	capa
ELAN Elanco Animal Health	ACQUIRER	🔴 HIGH	38%	Strategic Monitor	14	49	⚪	⚠️	$0.6B	capadivestiturerestructuringfirst-to-market
PRAX Praxis Precision Medicine	MONITOR	⚪ NORMAL	35%	Strategic Monitor	0	0	⚪		$0.4B
CHRS Coherus BioSciences	MONITOR	⚪ NORMAL	32%	Strategic Monitor	0	0	⚪		—
AMRX Amneal Pharmaceuticals	MONITOR	⚪ NORMAL	29%	Strategic Monitor	31	58	⚪		$0.3B	capavertical integrationgeneric erosionbiosimilar launch
PAHC Phibro Animal Health	MONITOR	⚪ NORMAL	28%	Strategic Monitor	0	0	⚪		—
LCI Lannett Company	MONITOR	⚪ NORMAL	27%	Strategic Monitor	0	4	⚪		—	restructuring
TEVA Teva Pharmaceutical	MONITOR	⚪ NORMAL	27%	Strategic Monitor	0	12	🟡		$3.6B	capa
HIMS Hims & Hers Health	MONITOR	⚪ NORMAL	23%	Strategic Monitor	0	0	⚪		$0.2B

🎯 Deal Watch Next 180 Days

Highest-conviction pre-announcement M&A signals

HRMYHarmony Biosciences72TARGET🔴 HIGH0-180 days

Tgt Z-score +3.3 — narcolepsy franchise highly attractive to large CNS acquirers
Small cap ($1.5B) — ideal bolt-on size for ABBV, JNJ, or JAZZ
Single-product dependency on Wakix creates strategic vulnerability
High FCF yield relative to market cap — cash-generative target
Specialty pharma CNS consolidation wave accelerating

📋 Wakix patent protection through 2033 — premium asset for acquirer
📅 Q1 2026 earnings — watch for partnership or licensing language
🎯 ABBV, JAZZ, JNJ, BIIB

CORTCorcept Therapeutics68TARGET🟡 MED-HIGH0-180 days

PDUFA date July 11, 2026 for relacorilant — binary catalyst drives pre-readout urgency
Tgt Z-score +12.7 — highest in generics universe by wide margin
Cortisol modulation platform highly differentiated — limited competition
Acquirers historically move pre-PDUFA to capture upside optionality at lower price
Korlym revenue growing steadily — profitable, cash-generative base business

📋 Korlym (mifepristone) generics risk emerging 2025-2026
📅 July 11, 2026 PDUFA — relacorilant FDA decision
🎯 PFE, ABBV, MRK, AZN

PRGOPerrigo61TARGET🟡 MEDIUM90-365 days

Tgt Z-score +5.9 — significant restructuring and divestiture language in transcripts
Goodwill impairment charges signal portfolio rationalization underway
OTC/consumer health segment increasingly attractive to PE buyers
Revenue declining — board pressure to create shareholder value
Irish domicile creates tax efficiency for international acquirers

📋 OTC generics — rolling LOE exposure across product portfolio
📅 Strategic review announcement or portfolio divestiture
🎯 Reckitt, Haleon, Sanofi Consumer, PE

LNTHLantheus Holdings55ACQUIRER🟡 MEDIUM90-365 days

Acq Z-score +10.7 — strongest acquirer signal in generics universe
Nuclear medicine/radiopharmaceuticals — hot consolidating sector
PYLARIFY revenue growth giving balance sheet firepower for deals
Active business development language in recent transcripts
Sector peers being acquired — RadioMedix, RayzeBio deals setting precedent

📋 Pipeline assets in development — needs acquisitions to diversify
📅 Q2 2026 earnings — watch for deal announcement or pipeline expansion
🎯 N/A — Lantheus is the acquirer